TL; DR: The Pre-Mortem: A Non-negotiable Part of Your Product Development Toolbox
Do you want to build products that avoid costly mistakes, meet customer needs, and drastically enhance your career prospects? Then, the pre-mortem is your secret weapon!
By imagining how a project might fail before it even begins, teams can identify and mitigate hidden risks early, ensuring a more resilient, successful outcome. This article explains why pre-mortems are a brilliant tool for risk mitigation, improving your team’s decision process, and how they can transform your product development process. Learn how to apply this proactive strategy and create bulletproof products.
🎓 October 23, 2024: The Advanced Product Backlog Management Course for Just $99!
👉 Please note:
- The course includes membership in the brand-new Hands-on Agile community of my former professional students.
- The course will only be available for sign-up until October 31, 2024!
🇩🇪 Zur deutschsprachigen Version des Artikels: Das Pre-Mortem: Wie man das Scheitern von Produkten im Vorfeld verhindert.
🗞 Shall I notify you about articles like this one? Awesome! You can sign up here for the ‘Food for Agile Thought’ newsletter and join 42,000-plus subscribers.
🎓 Join Stefan in one of his upcoming Professional Scrum training classes!
The Pre-Mortem: A Brilliant Strategy for Risk Mitigation in Product Development
Success is often measured by how quickly we launch new features or products; time-to-market is essential to beat your competition. However, speed alone is not enough—what truly defines success is a product’s ability to meet user needs while avoiding costly mistakes.
This is where the concept of a pre-mortem becomes invaluable. As a proactive risk-mitigation technique, the pre-mortem allows teams to identify and address potential failure points before they occur, enhancing their decision-making process.
Unlike traditional post-mortems, which occur after a project has failed, a pre-mortem involves envisioning a project as having already failed before it even begins. By asking, “What went wrong?” teams can explore possible reasons for failure and implement strategies to mitigate those risks. This ingenious approach enhances problem-solving and supports the creation of more resilient products that are better aligned with both customer needs and business objectives.
The Inversion Principle at the Core of the Pre-Mortem
The inversion principle is at the heart of the pre-mortem, which means thinking about a problem backward. Instead of asking, “How can I succeed?” you ask, “How can I fail?” This flipping of perspectives helps you see things you might not notice otherwise.
This concept is central to Charlie Munger’s investment philosophy and is, for example, also used in Liberating Structures’ TRIZ microstructure. In both cases, the goal is to improve outcomes by deliberately examining how things could go wrong. By inverting the problem, teams can identify weaknesses and blind spots that might otherwise remain hidden.
Cannot see the subscription form?
Please click here
How a Pre-Mortem Works
The mechanics of a pre-mortem are simple yet powerful. A typical pre-mortem session begins with the assumption that the product or feature has failed spectacularly. The team then engages in a brainstorming exercise, imagining and documenting every possible reason for the failure. Whether it’s unrealistic timelines, misaligned customer expectations, or technical limitations, no reason is too outlandish to consider.
Once the potential causes of failure are identified, the team works backward to address these issues. They ask, “How can we prevent this from happening?” This process encourages creative problem-solving by prompting the team to consider risks they may not have otherwise considered. It also fosters collaboration as the team collectively works to address and mitigate potential pitfalls before they become actual threats.
By approaching risk from this inverted perspective, the pre-mortem moves beyond surface-level concerns and digs deeper into structural, organizational, and even cultural issues that might cause problems down the line. It empowers teams to think critically about their decision-making process, revealing hidden risks that could jeopardize the project. As a result, teams are better equipped to create contingency plans and design more resilient products.
Best of all, all of this happens in a blame-free environment as the actual work hasn’t yet been started—it is all hypothetical!
Why Pre-Mortems Are Essential in Product Development
In product development, uncertainty is a given. Whether it’s developing an entirely new product or adding a critical feature, the path to success is often fraught with unknowns. Market conditions change, customer needs evolve, and technical challenges can arise anytime. A pre-mortem is a strategic buffer against these uncertainties, allowing teams to anticipate and address them proactively:
- Identifying Hidden Risks Early: One of the greatest strengths of the pre-mortem is its ability to surface hidden risks. In many product development cycles, risks are only identified after investing significant time and resources. By that point, addressing these issues can be costly and disruptive. The pre-mortem ensures that teams can identify risks early, allowing them to adjust their strategies before committing substantial resources.
- Encouraging a Safe Environment for Honest Feedback: Traditional risk assessments often fail because team members hesitate to voice concerns, either out of fear of being seen as negative or because they don’t want to challenge the status quo. In contrast, the pre-mortem creates a safe space for critical thinking by explicitly encouraging team members to imagine the worst. This aspect removes the stigma of negativity and fosters an environment where candid feedback is accepted and encouraged.
- Enhancing Decision-Making Through Collaboration: Pre-mortems also promote collaboration and support better decision-making. By involving cross-functional teams, organizations can draw on diverse perspectives to identify risks that might otherwise go unnoticed. For example, while a product manager might focus on market-related risks, engineers might highlight technical challenges, and customer support teams might flag potential user experience issues. This holistic approach ensures that all project aspects are considered and solutions are more robust.
- Promoting Long-Term Thinking: In product development, there is often pressure to focus on short-term gains—getting a product to market quickly or delivering features to meet immediate customer demands. While these goals are important, the pre-mortem encourages teams to think beyond immediate deadlines and consider the long-term health of the product. By identifying and addressing risks early, teams can create more sustainable products that are positioned for long-term success.
Pre-Mortem Nay-Sayers
While pre-mortems offer significant benefits, there are several common arguments or concerns from those who may oppose using them. Here are a few points skeptics might raise:
- “It’s Too Negative:” Some opponents may argue that focusing on failure is counterproductive and could dampen team morale. They might feel that pre-mortems encourage a pessimistic mindset, which could create unnecessary anxiety and hinder creative problem-solving.
- “We Already Have Risk Management Processes:” Organizations with established risk management frameworks may see pre-mortems as redundant. These skeptics could argue that risk identification and mitigation are already built into their development or project management processes, so adding a pre-mortem exercise is unnecessary.
- “It Takes Too Much Time:” Pre-mortems require dedicated time and effort, which critics might see as an obstacle in environments where teams are pressured to deliver quickly. Critics might argue they cannot afford the extra time needed to run this exercise, especially for smaller or iterative projects.
- “We Can’t Predict Everything:” Some may feel that unpredictable challenges will still arise no matter how much effort teams spend in advance on trying to anticipate failures. They might argue that it’s impossible to foresee every issue and that energy should instead be focused on being adaptable when problems occur.
- “It’s Not Necessary for All Projects:” Teams working on well-understood products or incremental improvements may believe a pre-mortem is overkill. They could argue that the complexity and risks involved in such projects are minimal, so a pre-mortem exercise doesn’t add enough value to justify its use.
Food for Thought
- They Can Help Navigate Uncertainty: Quickly adapting to new information is critical. Pre-mortems prepare teams to handle unexpected shifts, whether from changes in customer needs, new competition, or evolving technology. The exercise arms teams with contingency plans, helping them stay agile and responsive.
- Integrate Pre-Mortems with Agile Practices: Pre-mortems align well with Agile frameworks like Scrum. Scrum focuses on short iterations, learning from each Sprint, and delivering value incrementally. A pre-mortem before a Sprint or a significant release can complement this by surfacing risks, thus ensuring that teams are not just churning out more features but delivering the right thing in the right way.
- Pre-Mortems Build Psychological Safety: In many teams, people may hesitate to voice concerns due to fear of being seen as negative or disruptive. Pre-mortems actively encourage exploring what could go wrong, fostering an environment where it’s safe to challenge assumptions and offer critical feedback. This approach creates a culture of openness, where team members feel empowered to speak up about potential risks early on.
- Pre-Mortems Are Cost-Effective: The exercise helps prevent expensive course corrections later in the product development cycle. By identifying risks upfront, teams can avoid rework, scope creep, or technical debt, which are common causes of project delays and budget overruns.
- It’s Not Just for Big Projects: While pre-mortems are often associated with large-scale product launches, they can also be handy for minor features, iterative improvements, or even individual Sprints. The ability to anticipate and mitigate risks applies at any scale, making the pre-mortem a versatile tool for continuous improvement.
Conclusion: Why the Pre-Mortem Should Be a Regular Practice
When delivering valuable products and features, playing defense is just as critical as offense. The pre-mortem is more than just a clever brainstorming exercise—it’s a strategic tool for addressing risks before they snowball into costly mistakes. In a world where uncertainty is the norm and agility is critical, the pre-mortem provides teams with a practical framework to future-proof their work.
Don’t fall into the trap of reacting to failure after the fact. Instead, harness the inversion principle to flip the script on risk and failure, transforming potential disasters into actionable insights. The pre-mortem enables teams to spot blind spots, foster psychological safety, and collaborate across functions—leading to better decision-making and more resilient products.
If your team is serious about continuously delivering consistent value and thriving in complex environments, the pre-mortem should be a non-negotiable part of your product development toolbox.
The Pre-Mortem — Recommended Reading
Pre-Mortems: How a Stripe Product Manager prevents problems before launch.
This might just be the highest leverage Product Discovery activity that your team can do.
👆 Stefan Wolpers: The Scrum Anti-Patterns Guide (Amazon advertisement.)
📅 Scrum Training Classes, Workshops, and Events
You can secure your seat for Scrum training classes, workshops, and meetups directly by following the corresponding link in the table below:
See all upcoming classes here.
You can book your seat for the training directly by following the corresponding links to the ticket shop. If the procurement process of your organization requires a different purchasing process, please contact Berlin Product People GmbH directly.
✋ Do Not Miss Out and Learn more about Pre-Mortem — Join the 20,000-plus Strong ‘Hands-on Agile’ Slack Community
I invite you to join the “Hands-on Agile” Slack Community and enjoy the benefits of a fast-growing, vibrant community of agile practitioners from around the world.
If you like to join all you have to do now is provide your credentials via this Google form, and I will sign you up. By the way, it’s free.
Support your team’s efforts with Transparency by pointing to the free Scrum Anti-Patterns Guide: